Price and Probability: The Blog

Thank you DRF for costing us a winner!!

2010-08-14T17:28:00.000-07:00

July 21 at Penn National was just like any other Wednesday, except for the fact a horse we had in our Stable Mail at DRF, Rascal Flatter was running in the opening race that night. I was never notified about his running (even though we had entry notification), and he ran off in his debut at 4-1 (while of course I was notified about that and had to deal with seeing the charts). This was inexcusable, and it was not the only horse this happened with (thankfully, the others all LOST)!

DRF has to get its stable mail together! We have since gone to Equibase, which is much better at getting such information out, often multiple times!

Ray Gordon's Belmont Stakes Video Blog

2010-06-04T09:22:00.000-07:00

A Video Analysis of The 2010 Belmont Stakes:

Idiotic Post At PaceAdvantage About "Bridgejumping"

2010-03-23T12:19:00.000-07:00

This is the problem with censorship. I am not allowed to post to PaceAdvantage, so the blind will continue to lead the blind:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=67989

Here it says that players who always bet 1-5 shots (or less) to show, or who always bet the entire field, will go broke either way. Too bad they missed the truth of the matter, which is that there is no such thing as bridgejumping anymore. Moreover, the goal of a "bridgejumper" is for the heavy favorite to lose, i.e., run out of the money, than to hit the board. Why? Simple: rebates!

I'll spare the reader the precise math, but most are familiar with the "Dr. Z" system of dutching a five-horse field to leverage a minus-pool, with a 0.7 percent profit or so no matter the outcome. This is created by the "overlay" price of $2.10 on the favorite, which is leveraged against the rest of the field, who will pay so well to show that the money lost on the favorite is recovered. For this to occur, the favorite must have 98.7 percent of the show pool wagered on it to show. Let's use that identical scenario for this example, with the exception that the "bridgejumper" is also the owner of an OTB/ADW.

In that scenario, the huge show bet on the favorite is not rebated if it wins, because it pays $2.10, but if the bet loses, it is, since there is no minus pool! That yields the same payoffs as in the Dr. Z scenario, but with a fourteen percent rebate (the OTB profit) tacked on if the favorite loses, with the losing wager itself recovered by the other show bets.

I got this straight from one of the sharpest professional horseplayers in America, and a partner in an OTB parlor, who says that this is done routinely, and that horses are selected based on the likelihood that they will run off the board, not cash.

Though not a formal reason why I win at the track and you don't, it's a good example of why you don't. You're just damn stupid, and you let idiots like those at PaceAdvantage do your thinking for you.

Ray Gordon is the author of Price And Probability, and, according to the IRS, a profitable horseplayer.

Top Ten Reasons I Win At The Track, And You Don't

2010-03-20T04:58:00.000-07:00

I've decided to kick off the official PAP Blog with an in-your-face reality check regarding why I make money when I bet horseraces, and why you do not. You won't find much mention of me on various message boards, mostly becuase I've been banned for "troublemaking," such as when I ask the site's sponsors how much they win betting, and if they can prove it with IRS documentation, the way I do on the PAP site.

Over the next several posts, I will count down the top ten reasons losing horseplayers (that's you) give your money to the winning players (that's me and those who use the PAP sheets). I'm not going to reveal your handicapping mistakes, because that would be just plain stupid, but all the other mistakes that set the table for the handicapping mistakes, and the various lifestyle, psychological, and emotional mistakes that cause most every nonprofessional gambler to self-sabotage.

In 1986, the first time I won enough money to pay my bills for a few months or longer, an amazing number of haters felt compelled to "save" me from myself, by "warning " me that "you can't beat the races." The psychological abuse was distracting, and the last thing I needed, having just dropped out of college with a 4.0 GPA, and not having many other options for making money. Making speed-figures was actually very inexpensive, as it took all day, and nothing more than a Daily Racing Form. The money I won was from "thin air" as my starting bankroll was all of $15.00, and worked its way into the thousands.

Eventually, I left Manhattan for other reasons, and it took a while to rebuild my edge in Philadelphia. When I did, in 1990-1991, I banked for almost two years, with Mom and I scoring about $20,000.00+ in profits, according to the "signers" we hit (tax records). Beyer than sold his figures to the DRF, and I did not rebuild my edge until PAP matured about five years ago. After a few bumps, it's been pretty much smooth sailing ever since, and it's getting smoother. In other words, I know my shit, and, if you are like most horseplayers, you do not.

To those who want to try the PAP sheets, we put free ones up on our site, while we sell sheets for any card one wants, though it's pricey. The Price And Probability book explains enough of the method for the reader to implement a profitable version on his own, but I write here for all of those who smugly say that if your picks won, you'd just be betting them and wouldn't have to sell them. Way ahead of all of you on that, but if someone wants to pay me for a sheet I've already done for myself, they can be my guest. I can always hit the pools they don't, or just play another track that day.

When I see horse racing fora online populated by idiots who think anyone with truly profitable information would share it for free, I both cringe and laugh, but mostly laugh, because these are the people who fund my game, and I've learned to bless their ignorance.

Stay tuned for the top ten reasons I win at the track and you do not. Maybe you'll learn something, but I doubt it. Horseplayers are pretty fucking stupid (thank God).

Ray Gordon is a one-time winner of the Handigambling contest in Dan Ilman's Blog on the Daily Racing Form site.