Idiotic Post At PaceAdvantage About "Bridgejumping"

This is the problem with censorship. I am not allowed to post to PaceAdvantage, so the blind will continue to lead the blind:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=67989

Here it says that players who always bet 1-5 shots (or less) to show, or who always bet the entire field, will go broke either way. Too bad they missed the truth of the matter, which is that there is no such thing as bridgejumping anymore. Moreover, the goal of a "bridgejumper" is for the heavy favorite to lose, i.e., run out of the money, than to hit the board. Why? Simple: rebates!

I'll spare the reader the precise math, but most are familiar with the "Dr. Z" system of dutching a five-horse field to leverage a minus-pool, with a 0.7 percent profit or so no matter the outcome. This is created by the "overlay" price of $2.10 on the favorite, which is leveraged against the rest of the field, who will pay so well to show that the money lost on the favorite is recovered. For this to occur, the favorite must have 98.7 percent of the show pool wagered on it to show. Let's use that identical scenario for this example, with the exception that the "bridgejumper" is also the owner of an OTB/ADW.

In that scenario, the huge show bet on the favorite is not rebated if it wins, because it pays $2.10, but if the bet loses, it is, since there is no minus pool! That yields the same payoffs as in the Dr. Z scenario, but with a fourteen percent rebate (the OTB profit) tacked on if the favorite loses, with the losing wager itself recovered by the other show bets.

I got this straight from one of the sharpest professional horseplayers in America, and a partner in an OTB parlor, who says that this is done routinely, and that horses are selected based on the likelihood that they will run off the board, not cash.

Though not a formal reason why I win at the track and you don't, it's a good example of why you don't. You're just damn stupid, and you let idiots like those at PaceAdvantage do your thinking for you.

Ray Gordon is the author of Price And Probability, and, according to the IRS, a profitable horseplayer.